A pocket pair is two hole cards of the same rank. You will be dealt one about once every 17 hands, or roughly 6% of the time. That is often enough for pairs to matter a great deal to your results, and rare enough that it is tempting to play every one of them, every time, for any price. The players who do best with pairs are the ones who have a plan before the flop comes.
Three groups, three different hands
It helps to stop thinking of "pocket pairs" as one category.
- Big pairs (aces, kings, queens) are usually the best hand before the flop and are played for value. Raise them, and re-raise them. You are not hoping to improve. You want to build a pot while you are ahead and thin the field, because big pairs do best against one or two opponents.
- Medium pairs (jacks down to about eights) are the trickiest. They are ahead of most hands before the flop, but the flop often brings at least one higher card. With pocket jacks, an overcard appears on the flop more often than not. Raise them when you are first in, but be ready to slow down when the board and the betting both say you are behind.
- Small pairs (sevens down to twos) rarely win a big pot unimproved. Nearly every flop brings overcards, and you will seldom know where you stand. Their value comes almost entirely from flopping three of a kind.
What set mining is
A set is three of a kind made with a pocket pair and one card on the board. Set mining means calling a raise before the flop with a small or medium pair, mainly in the hope of flopping a set, and planning to give up most of the time when you miss.
The reason it works is that a set is both strong and hidden. If you hold 5♥ 5♣ and the flop comes K♠ 9♦ 5♠, a player with ace-king has no reason to suspect that the smallest card on the board has beaten them. Hands like top pair and overpairs will often pay off several bets.
The number to remember
You will flop a set or better only about 12% of the time, or roughly one time in eight and a half. Put another way, the odds are about 7.5-to-1 against. Most of the time you miss, and the chips you called before the flop are usually gone.
That means the call cannot pay for itself right away. The pot you are calling into almost never offers 7.5-to-1. Set mining only makes sense because of what you can win after the flop on the times you hit. Poker players call this implied odds.
When set mining is worth the call
Because you will not get paid in full every time you hit, a common rule of thumb asks for more than 7.5-to-1. Many players use this guideline: the smaller of the two stacks should be at least 15 to 20 times the amount you have to call. It is a rule of thumb, not a law, but it keeps you out of the worst spots.
Good conditions for a set-mining call:
- Deep stacks. Both you and the raiser have plenty of chips behind compared with the size of the raise.
- A raiser likely to hold a strong hand. A tight player raising from early position often has a big pair or a big ace. Those are exactly the hands that pay off a set.
- Position. Acting last after the flop makes it easier to build the pot when you hit and to get away cheaply when you miss.
- Little risk of a re-raise behind you. If an aggressive player still to act is likely to re-raise, you will often have to fold and lose your call without seeing a flop.
When to fold a pocket pair
Folding a pair before the flop can feel wrong. In these spots it is usually right:
- The stacks are too short. If it costs you 300 to call and the raiser has only 1,500 behind, the most you can win from that player is about five times your call, on a 7.5-to-1 shot. Fold the small pair, or in a tournament with a short stack of your own, consider whether moving all-in is better than calling.
- You are facing a raise and a re-raise. The price has gone up, and the re-raiser's range is heavy with bigger pairs. Small and medium pairs are in poor shape here.
- You missed the flop and face a bet. This is the discipline that makes set mining work. With pocket fours on a Q♦ J♣ 8♦ flop, you have two outs and little else. No set, no bet, and usually no call.
The most expensive habit with small pairs is calling "one more street" after missing. Decide before the flop what you are hoping to see, and stick to it.
Medium pairs after the flop
Pairs like nines, tens and jacks will often be an overpair or second pair on the flop, which puts you in a gray area. A few guidelines help:
- On a low, dry flop such as 8-4-2, pocket tens are usually ahead. Bet for value and to deny free cards to overcards. Our guide to continuation betting covers sizing for these spots.
- When one overcard flops, such as K-7-3, a single small bet or a check is fine, but treat the hand as a medium-strength holding. If an opponent shows real strength with raises or large bets on later streets, a pair below top pair is seldom good.
- In pots with three or more players, tighten up. The more opponents see the flop, the more likely one of them holds that overcard.
Even sets can lose
A flopped set is a very strong hand, not an unbeatable one. On boards with three cards to a flush or a straight, bet strongly to charge the draws, and remember that if the board pairs you make a full house. Losing with a set to a bigger set is rare, and it happens to everyone eventually. When it does, it is an unlucky deal, not a mistake.
Set mining is a plan that loses a small amount most of the time and wins a larger amount now and then, so short-term results swing a lot. A night of missed flops does not mean the calls were wrong, and one big pot does not mean every call was right. Play stakes you are comfortable losing, see our bankroll management guide for sizing your buy-ins, and visit the responsible gaming page if poker ever stops feeling like a game.